China: Pork imports rebalance amid expanding supply and trade measures
Chinese wholesale pork prices have continued to ease through the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a combination of increased slaughter, seasonal demand weakness, and changing import conditions.
According to MARA data, the national wholesale average stood at ¥19.32/kg for the week ending 29 September, down from spring highs above ¥23/kg and roughly 10% below the same period last year. The downward trend follows more than a year of strong profitability which had encouraged herd expansion and heavier marketings through early 2025.
Farms reliant on purchased piglets have reportedly faced negative margins since June, with rising throughput, and high temperatures weighing on demand. Larger integrated units are said to remain profitable but are prioritising cost-efficiency and technology investment over expansion.
Government reserve purchases have occasionally steadied the market, though not reversed the broader slide. MARA has also urged producers to reduce breeding sow numbers to correct oversupply, acknowledging that production growth has outpaced domestic demand.
Production for the first 9 months of 2025 reached 43.7 Mt, an increase of 1.3 Mt (3%) year-on-year. USDA forecasts stable swine production in 2026, with sow numbers levelling off after 2025 growth. China’s breeding herd reached 40.43 million head in June 2025, 104% of the 39 million baseline set under MARA’s capacity control policy. This remains within the designated “green-zone” (92–105%), but near the upper limit.
Profitability earlier in 2025 encouraged restocking at large commercial farms, yet declining prices since late spring are now expected to discourage replenishment through the remainder of the year. Smaller producers continue to exit.
Regional specialisation is intensifying, with northern provinces favouring finishing operations while southern areas maintain a breeding focus
China’s pork import landscape has undergone a marked shift in 2025, shaped by changing domestic supply conditions and new external trade barriers. For the year to date (Jan–Aug), total pork imports reached 1.47 Mt, broadly steady year-on-year but reflecting significant adjustments in both supplier mix and product focus.
Spain remained the leading import origin, shipping 369,000 t (Jan–Aug), up 8% year-on-year, followed by the United States with 212,000 t over the same period although this represented a 14% fall year-on-year, likely driven by recent tariff measures. Brazil also saw notable falls, down 31% year-on-year to total 130,000 t (Jan–Aug).
While no specific anti-dumping duties against Brazilian pork appear to have been published, several other dynamics likely contributed to the 31% drop in Brazil’s shipments to China (Jan–Aug) – such as possible shipment rejections or SPS delays, China’s growing domestic supply reducing import dependence and stronger competition from other major suppliers.
Offsetting these falls have been gains in import share from the UK (+20%), a gain of 15,300 t and Russia (+233%), a gain of 28,500 t, totalling 90,400 t and 40,700 t respectively.
Product-wise, imports were split between offal (762,000 t, 52%) and frozen pork (699,000 t, 48%), confirming China’s continued reliance on fifth-quarter products, an area traditionally dominated by EU exporters.
Looking ahead, the introduction of provisional anti-dumping duties on EU pork from 10 September 2025 has added a new layer of disruption. Duties range between 15.6% and 62.4%, typically around 20% for most firms, and are applied on arrival at Chinese ports as margin deposits. These measures, widely viewed as retaliation for EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, have made EU pork less competitive in recent weeks and prompted importers to seek alternative suppliers.
Despite this disruption, China’s overall import requirement remains firm. However, the composition of suppliers is changing rapidly. As US and EU shipments contract, trade flows are diversifying which is likely to persist into 2026.
Implications for the UK
With both EU and US exporters facing reduced access, more fifth-quarter and frozen cuts are likely to be redirected into South East and East Asia (Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea), adding competitive pressure and potentially easing prices.
For the UK, this brings tougher competition in those markets but also scope to consolidate positions where demand aligns with UK specifications.
Outcomes of ongoing investigations later in 2025 will determine how durable these shifts are into 2026.
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