Rabobank: Geopolitics threaten the global seafood industry
The shrimp sector, producing the world’s most traded seafood, faces acute disruption from US tariffs disproportionately targeting Asian exporters. With duties reaching up to 50%, trade flows are being rerouted, triggering oversupply in alternative markets and price volatility worldwide.
The salmon industry, constrained by long production cycles and a reliance on fresh logistics, is also exposed. Potential US tariffs on Canadian salmon threaten to destabilize the entire market, as Canada sends 87% of its output to the US. The uncertainty is already stalling investment and could lead to higher consumer prices and reduced demand.
Freshwater species such as tilapia and pangasius are under pressure too. Chinese tilapia faces a 75% US tariff, which would render it uncompetitive. With few viable substitutes, US consumption is expected to fall sharply, while oversupply threatens to depress prices in China, Africa, and Latin America.
Groundfish markets are also caught in the crossfire of sanctions and tariffs. Russian-origin fish was once central to global supply but is now restricted, fuelling price spikes in Europe and surimi oversupply in Asia. Across all segments, the industry faces a prolonged period of uncertainty, requiring strategic diversification and domestic market development.
As trade barriers, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions reshape supply chains, the global seafood industry faces a prolonged period of instability. While some markets may eventually stabilize, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy is already deterring investment and undermining long-term planning. Producers in Asia, particularly in the shrimp, freshwater fish, and surimi sectors, are disproportionately affected, while US consumers face rising prices and constrained supply. Strategic diversification – both in sourcing and market access – has become essential, but it is difficult to implement in a cost-sensitive industry. Domestic market development may offer a partial buffer, but the path forward remains fraught with complexity.
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