Resilience of Scotland’s red meat sector highlighted in new industry report
The report - a key statical tool supporting Scotland’s red meat and business decision makers - shows that, on the surface, 2024 brought a more settled year for Scotland’s red meat supply chain. This included combined farming and processing output for cattle, sheep, and pigs estimated to have risen by 2% from 2023, exceeding £2.7 billion. When economic ripple effects through the wider economy are considered, the sector’s total impact could have reached £3.5 billion of output and £1.05 billion of GVA in 2024.
The report spotlights continued strong consumer demand for beef, lamb and pork alongside the critical longer-term risk to both the economic and social contributions made by the sector from perpetual declining livestock numbers. Following on from the decline reported in June 2024, Scotland's beef cow numbers were 3.6% lower than a year earlier in December 2024, leaving them down by nearly 15% in the past decade. There are now signs that the decline has slowed in the first half of 2025.
Meanwhile, the ewe flock fell for a third consecutive year, down 2.3% in June. These trends are concerning to sustainability up and down the red meat supply chain, but there is a clear economic opportunity for Scotland to fill the demand if collective action is taken; as highlighted in the current QMS and Scottish Red Meat Industry Resilience Group’s ‘Meating Our Potential’ campaign.
Addressing attendees from across the red meat supply chain, QMS Chief Executive, Sarah Millar, said: “With record high economic contribution in 2024, the latest data highlights that Scotland’s red meat sector remains a cornerstone of rural communities and a key contributor to the national economy.
“The evidence continues to reiterate demand for our renowned red meat is strong, with abattoir output rising 5% in 2024 to an estimated £1.14b. We know that there are underlying challenges in the farming sector impacting the critical issue of declining livestock, posing very real threats not only to our red meat sector but the wider economy, society and environment. We will continue to work closely with partners inside and outside of the red meat supply chain to keep Scottish beef, pork and lamb at the heart of our sustainable food system”.
Iain Macdonald, Market Intelligence Manager at QMS and author of the 2025 Red Meat Industry Profile, said: “Despite record finished cattle prices and strong demand for both beef and lamb, the lack of profitability due to persistently high input and labour costs has driven further herd and flock reductions. Elevated interest rates made it costly to service existing loans and invest in the future, while the tight labour market continued to make recruitment difficult and wage costs high.”
The report shows that beef productivity gains and the expansion of the dairy herd helped limit the decline in calf registrations to just 0.8% in 2024. Meanwhile, the number of Scottish store cattle moving to finishers or abattoirs in England and Wales fell further from the 2022 peak, reflecting some positive movement towards retaining value within Scotland.
In the sheep sector, farmgate prices surged to record highs during 2024, driven by strong consumer demand. However, wet spring weather increased lamb mortality, reducing the lamb crop and preventing Scottish farmers from fully benefiting from the favourable market. A surge in imports and lower exports pushed sheepmeat availability on the UK market up 8.8% from 2023 without dampening prices, underlining the strength of demand.
The pig sector continued its slow recovery from the financial crisis of 2021/22. Although pig prices dipped slightly from 2023 highs, an increase in slaughter numbers and improved margins supported confidence. Despite a competitive price advantage for EU pork, imports showed little growth, while strong domestic demand helped absorb the rebound in UK production.
Turnover from primary red meat processing in Scotland rose for a fifth consecutive year in 2024, lifting 5% to £1.14 billion. Higher beef and lamb revenues offset marginal declines in pork revenue and hide values. However, rising livestock and production costs restricted improvements in processor margins. Employment in the processing sector fell further, reflecting both restructuring and productivity gains, while a tight labour market saw the proportion of workers from non-EU/EEA countries overtake EU/EEA nationals.
Iain concluded: “While the sector’s ability to generate record economic output in 2024 is encouraging, the continued contraction of Scotland’s livestock herds highlights the urgent need for action. Stabilising breeding numbers, improving productivity, and retaining more store animals within Scotland are key steps to protect rural jobs, support food security, and unlock the sector’s full economic potential.
“Without intervention, the UK’s reliance on beef and lamb imports will only grow, potentially from countries with lower standards, at a time when geopolitical instability and climate change make food security more important than ever. Meanwhile, it’s vital that Scotland’s specialist sheep and pig sectors retain the confidence to keep investing in high-quality production that underpins rural livelihoods and supports healthy, balanced diets”.
QMS and the Scottish Red Meat Resilience Group’s Meating Our Potential campaign highlights this widening domestic beef supply gap as a major opportunity for Scotland’s red meat supply chain.
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