The USDA has once again raised its forecast for US beef imports
In its supply and demand report, the USDA revised upward its 2025 import forecast, which showed an 18% increase compared to the previous year.
For 2026, they anticipate a 3.35% increase in imports.
The USDA slightly adjusted its 2026 production forecast downward, now projecting a 0.7% decrease compared to the previous year. In 2025, production was 3.6% lower than the previous year.
The per capita consumption forecast was raised to 59.6 pounds, up from 59.3 pounds in 2025.
The USDA's 2025 year-end data showed a 12% drop in exports and an 18% jump in imports. In the last two years, imports have almost doubled exports.
In 2025, the volume imported was more than twice that of exports, a ratio not seen since 2004-2005 when cases of mad cow disease occurred.
Projections for 2026 indicate that imports will represent 17.34% of the total beef supply, compared to 16.82% the previous year, reaching a new all-time high.
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